[EMCOMM]: Forward: Information – Ophelia – 2011-10-01 05:46:11 UTC

[EMCOMM]: Forward: Information – Ophelia – 2011-10-01 05:46:11 UTC

2011-10-01

This is the latest from the Canadian Hurricane Center. Amateurs in the Maritimes and Newfoundland are well advised to test and fuel your generator in preparation in case you are called upon. Ophelia is still being evasive. Winds don’t seem to be a factor, however rainfall might be a factor.

73

Doug Mercer VO1DM CEC

Vice President Field Services

P.O. Box 1042 – Goulds, NL A1S 1H2

Tel: 709-364-4741

Cell: 709-697-3319

E-mail: dougvo1dtm@gmail.com

====================================================================

WOCN31 CWHX 010545
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:44 AM ADT Saturday
1 October 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
      Newfoundland
      Nova Scotia.

      For hurricane Ophelia.

      The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT.

      Hurricane Ophelia to pass east of Bermuda today. Will spread
      Gales to offshore Maritimes waters Sunday evening.  Moisture
      From Ophelia could enhance rainfall over the region later in
      The weekend.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 3:00 AM ADT.

Location: near 27.2 north 63.1 west.

About 590 kilometres south-southeast of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds: near 195 km/hour.

Present movement: north at 28 km/hour.

Minimum central pressure: 957 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Ophelia is forecast to remain at or near a category-three storm for
much of today then pass east of Bermuda later this afternoon.
Meanwhile an unrelated non-tropical weather system with a frontal
zone extending into the tropics is forecast to move into the maritime
provinces today and Sunday.  As Ophelia moves northward, it is
expected that the this frontal system will nearly stall over Nova
Scotia and Newfoundland.

Computer models are still showing a range of scenarios for Ophelia's
track - ranging from not far east of Cape Breton to well offshore
over the Grand Banks off Newfoundland.

A. Wind.

Greatest chance for strong winds from Ophelia is over Eastern
Newfoundland as well as offshore Maritimes and Newfoundland waters.
At this point in time, there is about a 50% chance of tropical
storm-force winds over Eastern Newfoundland.  Tropical storm-force is
approximately 60 gusting to 90 km/h.  Chance of hurricane-force gusts
(120 km/h) over land is only about 5-10%.

B. Rainfall.

Rainfall warnings will likely be issued for parts of Nova Scotia this
morning for rain from the previously mentioned non-tropical system.

Some forecast scenarios indicate this stalled frontal system could
tap in to some of Ophelia's moisture Sunday night or into Monday
giving the possibility of additional heavy rainfall over parts of
Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.  We will be monitoring this aspect of
the weather systems particularly closely given the potential for very
heavy rainfall with that setup.

C. Surge/waves.

Too early to speculate on surge effects.  Waves will likely be a
concern along the South Coast of Newfoundland later this weekend.
Ocean swell will also likely begin to reach the Atlantic coast of
Nova Scotia later on Sunday into Monday.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Given Ophelia's expected track will bring it near southeastern
Maritimes marine areas by Sunday evening, gale warnings have been
issued for Laurentian Fan and the southeastern half of East Scotian
Slope.  Storm or possibly hurricane force winds could effect these
waters as well as the Grand Banks early on Monday.

Large waves expected - especially to the right of Ophelia's track as
it moves into Canadian waters.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

End

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