WOCN31 CWHX 120545 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:45 AM ADT THURSDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2013

WOCN31 CWHX 120545
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:45 AM ADT THURSDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2013
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA
      PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
      QUEBEC MARITIME.

      FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT.

      GABRIELLE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA: WILL INTERACT WITH
      FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE MARITIMES
      AND NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3.00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: NEAR 33.0 NORTH 67.2 WEST, OR ABOUT 250 KILOMETRES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KM/H.

PRESENT MOVEMENT:  NORTHWEST AT 9 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1010 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BERMUDA AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL START ACCELERATING NORTHWARD
TODAY BEFORE IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO NEW BRUNSWICK TO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM - COMPLETELY SEPARATE FROM GABRIELLE - WILL
LIKELY GIVE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF NEW BRUNSWICK
AGAIN TODAY.

AS GABRIELLE MOVES NORTHWARD LATER TODAY, ITS TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN TOWARD THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A
SECOND AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD REACH THE SOUTH SHORE OF
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST, EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA, PEI AND WESTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND LATER IN THE DAY. WHILE COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS
ON SHOWING THIS INTERACTION, THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ITS LOCATION. THAT
SAID, IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOME
OF THESE FOREMENTIONED AREAS ONCE THE SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER.

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY.
IN FACT THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF THE LOW ITSELF HAS BECOME SEPARATED
FROM THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD THAT IS REQUIRED TO FULLY SUSTAIN SUCH
TROPICAL FEATURE. THE REMAINING CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CLIP EASTERN
CAPE BRETON LATE FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ORIGINAL STORM CENTER MAY BE BARELY
DISCERNABLE AT THAT TIME AS ITS ENERGY WILL HAVE BECOME ABSORBED
INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

A. WIND.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, MOST OF GABRIELLE'S MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
MARITIMES, WHICH ITSELF WILL GIVE A BLUSTERY DAY TO MANY REGIONS.
ANY DIRECT WINDS FROM THE REMAINING CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE COULD
ENHANCE THE WINDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OVER EASTERN CAPE
BRETON AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND, BUT AT THIS TIME SEEM UNLIKELY TO
REACH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (90+ KM/H).

B. RAINFALL.

SEE FIRST SECTION ABOVE FOR DESCRIPTION OF THE COMPLICATED
INTERACTION EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM GABRIELLE AND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAINFALL WARNINGS IF
REQUIRED COULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE SCENARIO BECOMES
CLEARER.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF GABRIELLE AND CURRENT TIDAL CYCLE OVER
THE REGION, SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME HEAVIER
SURF IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CAPE BRETON AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND
WITH THE PASSAGE OF GABRIELLE'S REMAINING CIRCULATION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF GABRIELLE OVER SOUTHERN
MARITIME WATERS EARLY ON FRIDAY, THEN SPREAD TO EASTERN WATERS DURING
THE DAY AND TO NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE REMAINING
CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE WHEN IT CROSSES MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND
WATERS LATER ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6
METERS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN GABRIELLE ENTERS CANADIAN WATERS ON FRIDAY.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END

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